WoE Rail Conference and Tour Nov 2011

[Paul G]

West of England Rail Conference and Rail Tour 4 November 2011
9am to 4pm, Mercure Holland House Hotel (7 minutes walk from Bristol Temple Meads)

Following the conference and lunch there will be the opportunity to explore our local rail network, courtesy of a special train provided by First Great Western. We hope to travel up the Portishead, and the Severn Beach and Henbury loop lines. Please note places on the train are limited and may be restricted to one per group.

http://travelplus.org.uk/public-transpo ... r-nov-2011

[mow]

Coverage on Points West as I type.

Link to BBC Bristol Website.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-15592277

[Robin Summerhill]

Coverage on Points West as I type.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-15592277

Just watched it, and read the article.

As I've often said on here and to others until they get bored with me , its one thing talking about re-using existing freight lines for passenger traffic, but quite another to bear the cost of rebuilding formations and relaying lines on long-closed bits of former infrastructure.

Reopening the Portishead line as far as Portbury should theoreticlly be reasonably straightforward, but rebuilding the line beyond to Portishead would not. I was down there a couple of years ago and there are trees growing in the four foot, metal fences across the line and Gawd knows what else.

I see in the BBC report that a bid for ú43m to reopen the line has just been rejected by HMG. It'll need more than a few jumble sales and enthusiasm to get that sort of money together, and I doubt that it would come from private capital - ú43m plus interest takes a lot of paying back, and I wonder whether the revenue generated would ever cover it. A back of a fag packet calculation tells you that if investors were to get only 5% return on their capital, you'd need ú2.15m a year just to pay that, let alone the capital.

Just thought as I was writing this - Jules was going to put a business plan together some months ago - how you getting on?

Moving on. The Henbury loop might be a runner, but it does suffer from the problem that the line is right at the northern end of Bristol's residential development in Henbury and Brentry. In other words, if you live half a mile closer to Westbury than the railway, it would probably still be far quicker to get a bus into Bristol than to go in the opposite direction to the Centre to catch a train, which ulitimately would not land you particularly in the centre of Bristol at the other end.

If some bright spark suggested a spur with a triangular junction from just west of Henbury to Cribbs Causeway, then that might indeed have the potential to pick up some traffic. A service running from. say, Parkway via Henbury to Cribbs, then on to Avonmouth and back to Bristol might be a runner.

I see that the Thornbury branch gets a mention again. I honestly don't know why - perhaps its because some politician has looked at a map, seen a railway and thought "Ooh look, there's another one!"

The Thornbury branch was fine in Midland Railway days when it was the means of "escape" from Thornbury to the outside world, when the alternative was a 4-hour walk to Bristol or Berkeley Road. You will recall that this was not one of Beeching's victims - it didn't make any money 80 years ago and was closed to passengers in 1941. The line goes through nowhere of any consequence as far as passenger revenues are concerned - Tytherington, Latteridge and Iron Acton are not West Drayton, Hayes and Southall as far as catchment areas are concerned! Come to that, they don't have the traffic potential of Patchway - perhaps more like Pilning .... 'nuff said ...

Most people who want to go anywhere (in numbers) from Thornbury want to go to Bristol or Cribbs Causeway or perhaps Gloucester. They are most unlikely to go to Bristol by train via Yate if a bus gets then there in half the time and half the distance, and if they want to go anywhere of significance by train they'll go to Parkway, where you could get more quickly on a bike than a train via Yate.

Ypu may have gathered by now that I think the Thornbury branch is a dead idea before it starts.

Finally, electrification to The Beach?? Interesting concept - I know that traffic levels have increasd substantially in recent years, but enough to justify "the wires?" Seems unlikely to me, but somebody aroud here might know better.

[free2grice]

Reopening the Portishead line as far as Portbury should theoreticlly be reasonably straightforward, but rebuilding the line beyond to Portishead would not. I was down there a couple of years ago and there are trees growing in the four foot, metal fences across the line and Gawd knows what else.

A case of 'The glass is half empty'.

A few trees in the four foot and a couple of metal fences across the formation are hardly a problem to a rail developer. Can you imagine the problems encountered when building the Channel Tunnel Rail Link between St.Pancras and Cheriton in Kent ....or even the Channel Tunnel itself.

In terms of engineering issues, re-opening the railway line to Portishead is a doddle. <BJ>

[Robin Summerhill]

Reopening the Portishead line as far as Portbury should theoreticlly be reasonably straightforward, but rebuilding the line beyond to Portishead would not. I was down there a couple of years ago and there are trees growing in the four foot, metal fences across the line and Gawd knows what else.

A case of 'The glass is half empty'.

A few trees in the four foot and a couple of metal fences across the formation are hardly a problem to a rail developer. Can you imagine the problems encountered when building the Channel Tunnel Rail Link between St.Pancras and Cheriton in Kent ....or even the Channel Tunnel itself.

In terms of engineering issues, re-opening the railway line to Portishead is a doddle. <BJ>

I didn't say it wasn't possible, just not easy (ie. as far as Portbury, reasonably straightforward, Portbury to Portishead not reasonably straightforward). Even organisations like the Bluebell are proving that "where there's a will there's a way" when it comes to reinstating passenger services. But, to take your analogy, there is/was rather more trafiic potential and therefore revenue on HS1 than there is on the Portishead line.

It would be theoretically possible, from an engineering viewpoint, to reopen the S&D for example. That's not to say that it will ever happen, and the reason it won't is that there is insufficent traffic potential to make it worthwhile.

Somebody apparently has already costed Portishead at ú43m (or thats what the grant bid was). Presumably this includes everything, including a new station at Portishead. I was making the point, admittedly obliquely, that ú43m is rather a lot of money and that, without somebody stumping up a grant/ gift/ call it what you will, there is little chance of sufficient revenue coming in from fares to make paying that sort of money back (with interest) a realistic commercial proposition.

As I've said earlier on here when this subject has come up, if Network Rail and/or any TOC thought they could make a profit out of the Portishead branch there would be a passenger service running down there already.

[oldchapie]

in the days of the longmoor military railway the royal engineers (sappers) would have new line in a week for the little bit to Portishead had the experience of doing something similar out in the suez canal zone for real.to old to do it now lol

[madhattie]

As I've said earlier on here when this subject has come up, if Network Rail and/or any TOC thought they could make a profit out of the Portishead branch there would be a passenger service running down there already.

Oh, I don't think that's the case at all

I think most of these projects are planned and costed in such a way that the maximum amount of cash is extracted from the government (ie. the taxpayer) first, and profitability second.

Personally I don't see a need to reopen to Portishead at all. They should just build a massive park and ride along the existing railway at the point where it's closest to Junction 19 of the M5. That way a reopened branch would serve a much greater catchment area.

[jules]

They should just build a massive park and ride along the existing railway at the point where it's closest to Junction 19 of the M5.

Portbury Docks already is a massive car park. If they shipped more of those cars out by rail and a bit faster, you wouldn't need to build anymore car park ...

Just thought as I was writing this - Jules was going to put a business plan together some months ago - how you getting on?

I've decided to bow out and leave it to the obvious rail professionals at North Somerset District Council

[Robin Summerhill]

As I've said earlier on here when this subject has come up, if Network Rail and/or any TOC thought they could make a profit out of the Portishead branch there would be a passenger service running down there already.

Oh, I don't think that's the case at all

I think most of these projects are planned and costed in such a way that the maximum amount of cash is extracted from the government (ie. the taxpayer) first, and profitability second.

Ooooh you cynic you!!!

Personally I don't see a need to reopen to Portishead at all. They should just build a massive park and ride along the existing railway at the point where it's closest to Junction 19 of the M5. That way a reopened branch would serve a much greater catchment area.

I was thinking about that after free2grice's post. The trouble is (as I understand it from the media reports I've seen) the biggest problem is getting out of Portishead onto the M5 junction. I rarely go anywhere near the place these days, and certainly not at rush hours, but tales tell of the jams being quite substantial. Therefore, unless somebody decides to take a bit of the car loading area off its owners to build a station/ park and ride, you'd still have the same congestion problem if you put a P&R on the east side of the M5.

I've decided to bow out and leave it to the obvious rail professionals at North Somerset District Council

Hmmm - an interesting choice of words. Are you sure that you can use "rail professionals" and "Council" in the same sentence? Looks like poor grammar to me

[free2grice]

The trouble is (as I understand it from the media reports I've seen) the biggest problem is getting out of Portishead onto the M5 junction. I rarely go anywhere near the place these days, and certainly not at rush hours, but tales tell of the jams being quite substantial.

The A369 on a weekday from Portishead to Portbury and the M5 between 07:30 and 09:00 .....forget it!! <BJ>

[jules]

A back of a fag packet calculation tells you that if investors were to get only 5% return on their capital, you'd need ú2.15m a year just to pay that, let alone the capital.

My (very) back of a fag packet speculation puts the potential farebox for Bristol-Portishead at ú2-2.5m pa - and that's being generous.

[Robin Summerhill]

A back of a fag packet calculation tells you that if investors were to get only 5% return on their capital, you'd need ú2.15m a year just to pay that, let alone the capital.

My (very) back of a fag packet speculation puts the potential farebox for Bristol-Portishead at ú2-2.5m pa - and that's being generous.

And I presume that the ú43m grant bid was for the capital cost of providing all the infrastructure. To which must be added the day-to-day running costs for the actual service - staff salaries, fuel bills, depreciation on stock and fixtures etc.

Ho hum ......

Looks like the good people of Portishead might be waiting a little longer for their train service then ...

[BristleGWR]

Looks like the good people of Portishead might be waiting a little longer for their train service then ...

The longer they are waiting the more it will cost, the estimated cost has gone up by 16% in a year!!

http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Bristol- ... story.html

[AndyK]

Moving on. The Henbury loop might be a runner, but it does suffer from the problem that the line is right at the northern end of Bristol's residential development in Henbury and Brentry. In other words, if you live half a mile closer to Westbury than the railway, it would probably still be far quicker to get a bus into Bristol than to go in the opposite direction to the Centre to catch a train, which ulitimately would not land you particularly in the centre of Bristol at the other end.

I'm apt to agree with Robin's comments about the Henbury line (and about the Thornbury branch), but the situation might change if Filton airfield were to be built over with houses; the railway might be very well placed to serve them.

Has much consideration been given to reopening Chipping Sodbury station? Yate and Chipping Sodbury have a combined population similar to Chippenham. The official attitude is no doubt that they are already served by Yate and Parkway stations, but of course Yate station won't take you in the London direction and (according to Transport Direct) Parkway is a 25 minute drive in the wrong direction which, given the proximity of the M4, must be a strong disincentive to taking the train. There would of course be a reluctance to increase journey times by adding an extra stop, but with the improved acceleration of the electric trains, this would be less of the problem.

And I wonder if there might be scope for a St Werburghs station at about the site of Ashley Hill Junction on the Avonmouth line.